Prices of these products and services

Prices of these products and services in March 2012, in relation to February 2012 increased in average by 1.1%. Consumer prices in March 2012 in relation to the same month 2011 increased by 3.2%, while in relation to December 2011 they increased by 2.0%.

Main groups according to destination of consumption

Observed by main groups according to destination of consumption in March 2012 in relation to the previous month, the greatest increase of prices was noted in the groups Тransport (3.7%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.4%), Dwelling, water, electricity, gas and other fuels and Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance (by 0.8% each), Health and Restaurants and hotels (by 0.4% each). Decrease of prices was noted in the groups Recreation and culture (-1.5%), Communications (-0.3%) and Clothing and footwear (-0.2%).

Prices of other products and services mostly remained unchanged.

News source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia link: article

The main consumer groups have

In March 2012 compared to the previous month the prices of goods and services in the main consumer groups have been changed as follows:

1.) Food and non-alcoholic beverages – an increase of 0.7%;

2.)  Alcoholic beverages and tobacco – the prices have remained at the level of the previous month;

3.)  Clothing and footwear – a decrease of 1.5%;

4.)  Housing (rentals, maintenance and repair), water, electricity, gas and other fuels – an increase of 0.2%;

5.)  Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house – an increase of 0.1%;

6.)  Health – a decrease of 0.4%;

7.)  Transport – an increase of 1.2%;

8.) Communications – a decrease of 0.3%;

9.) Recreation and culture – a decrease of 0.6%;

10.) Education – an increase of 0.1%;

11.) Restaurants and hotels – the prices have remained at the level of the previous month;

12.) Miscellaneous goods and service – an increase of 0.1%.

Harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in March 2012 compared to February 2012 was 100.1%, i.e. the monthly inflation was 0.1%. The inflation rate since the beginning of the year (March 2012 compared to December 2011) has been 1.1% and the annual inflation in March 2012 compared to March 2011 was 1.7%.

Annual average inflation

The annual average inflation, measured by HICP, in the last 12 months (April 2011 – March 2012) compared to the previous 12 months (April 2010 – March 2011) was 2.7%. In terms of HICP in March 2012 compared to the previous month the prices of goods and services in the

main consumer groups have been changed as follows:

1.) Food and non-alcoholic beverages – an increase of 0.3%;

2.) Alcoholic beverages and tobacco – the prices have remained at the level of the previous month;

3.) Clothing and footwear – a decrease of 1.2%;

4.) Housing (rentals, maintenance and repair), water, electricity, gas and other fuels – an increase of 0.4%;

5.) Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house – a decrease of 0.1%;

6.) Health – a decrease of 0.2%;

7.) Transport – an increase of 1.1%;

8.) Communications – a decrease of 0.2%;

9.) Recreation and culture – a decrease of 1.0%;

10.) Education – an increase of 0.2%;

11.) Restaurants and hotels – a decrease of 1.0%;

12.) Miscellaneous goods and service – an increase of 0.1%.

Price index of a small basket (PISB)

The price index of a small basket (PISB) in March 2012 compared to February 2012 was 100.5% and the overall increase since the beginning of the year (March 2012 compared to December 2011) has been 101.8%.

In March compared to the previous month the prices of goods and services in the small basket for the 20% households with the lowest income, have changed as follows:

1.) Food products – an increase of 0.7%;

2.) Non-food products – an increase of 0.3%;

3.) Services – an increase of 0.1%.

News source: NSI link: article

The main groups of export

According to the data the main groups of export are: (72.7%) base metal and articles of base metal, (7.0%) vegetable products, (5.0%) prepared foodstuffs, beverages and tobacco, (3.7%) leather and their articles, (3.2%) machinery, appliances and electric material, (3.1%) textiles and textile articles etc.

The main groups of import

According to the data the main groups of import are: (27.2%) mineral products, (13.7%) prepared foodstuffs, beverages and tobacco, (10.1%) machinery, appliances and electric material, (7.9%) products of chemical industries, (6.4%) transport means, (6.2%) vegetable products etc.

Main export and import countries

Our country exported in February 2012: Italy (42.8%), China (11.0%), Albany (8.7%), Macedonia (6.2%), Germany (3.9%), Serbia (3.4%) etc. According to the data for the period February 2012 more import we have from: Macedonia (13.6%), Germany (12.8%), Serbia (8.7%), China (7.7%), Italy (6.9%), Turkey (6.9%) etc. Trade with EU countries is: exports (54.1%) and imports (38.1%).

Check points

Mainly export is done through check points like: Hani I Elezit (60.9%), Vermica (22.0), Merdar (4.8%) etc. Mainly import is done through check points like: Hani i Elezit (33.0%), Merdar (20.2%), Vermica (13.3%), Inter Europa(9.5%) etc.

News source: Kosovo Agency of Statistics link: article

The MPI in February 2012 compared with January 2012 recorded a rise of 1.0%. The index in February 2011 had recorded a rise of 1.9% compared with January 2011.

The twelve-month average index, from March 2011 to February 2012, compared with the same index of the period from March 2010 to February 2011, increased by 7.8%. The previous year the twelve-month average index had increased by 6.5%.

Monthly rates of change of February 2012 compared with January 2012

Import prices in February 2012 increased by 1.0% compared with the previous month, January 2012, due to the monthly changes of the sub-indices of the market zones:

a. The MPI of the Eurozone Market increased by 0.4%.

b. The MPI of the Non-Eurozone Market increased by 1.5%.

Annual rates of change of February 2012 compared with February 2011

Import prices in February 2012 increased by 7.8% compared with the same month of the previous year, February 2011, due to the annual changes of the sub-indices of the market zones:

a. The MPI of the Eurozone Market increased by 0.9%.

b. The MPI of the Non-Eurozone Market increased by 13.9%.

News source: Eurostat link: article

Plant production

In plant production, viewed by branches of crops, crop farming production rose by 5.9%, fruit production rose by 7.0%, and grape production fell by 7.1% in relation to 2010.

Crop farming production

In crop farming production, viewed by groups, cereal production rose by 7.4%, vegetables rose by 5.4% and fodder crops rose by 0.7%. Production of industrial crops rose by 14.8% in relation to 2010.

Livestock production

In livestock production, viewed by groups, cattle breeding decreased by 1.3%, pig breeding fell by 0.3%, poultry fell by 3,2% and apiculture fell by 3.8% in relation to 2010.

News source: Eurostat link: article

Monthly comparison

In February 2012 compared with January 2012, production of energy grew by 7.7% in the euro area and by 6.6% in the EU27. Capital goods rose by 0.7% and 0.1% respectively. Intermediate goods decreased by 1.4% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU27. Non-durable consumer goods fell by 1.6% and 2.0% respectively. Production of durable consumer goods dropped by 2.0% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU27.

Among the Member States for which data are available, industrial production rose in nine and fell in thirteen. The highest increases were registered in the Netherlands (+13.0%), Slovakia (+2.8%) and Finland (+2.1%), and the largest decreases in Malta (-4.6%), Sweden (-3.6%) and Ireland (-3.2%).

Annual comparison

In February 2012 compared with February 2011, production of energy rose by 3.6% in the euro area and by 1.4% in the EU27. Capital goods grew by 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. Intermediate goods decreased by 4.5% in the euro area and by 4.0% in the EU27. Non-durable consumer goods fell by 5.3% and 4.4% respectively. Durable consumer goods dropped by 6.4% in the euro area and by 5.2% in the EU27.

Among the Member States for which data are available, industrial production rose in seven and fell in fifteen. The highest increases were registered in Slovakia (+8.4%), Latvia (+7.3%) and the Netherlands (+6.7%), and the largest decreases in Luxembourg (-14.4%), Malta (-11.4%) and Greece (-8.5%).

News source: Eurostat link: article

A 14% passenger increase

So far this year Belgrade Airport has seen a 14% passenger increase on last year by handling an additional 74.000 passengers. In March the airport welcomed 216.025 passengers, an increase of 14.4% compared to the same month last year. Since January the airport has handled 604.210 visitors. 2011 marked Belgrade Airport’s third busiest year on record behind 1987 and 1988. Its best result came 25 years ago when it saw 3.311.951 passengers, a year which is still a record breaker for several airports in the former Yugoslavia.

Airport expansion

eanwhile, work on the expansion of the airport’s gate area is continuing. A total of 9.000 square metres is being redeveloped and another 10.000 square metres will be added. Work is currently being carried out on the first phase of the project. The first refurbished terminal one gates will be opened progressively from late May until late June. Recently the airport refurbished its business class lounge and completed the expansion of its security and passport control areas, adding new X-rays, shoe scanners and cutting queue times. The entire reconstruction and expansion project is being financed through the airports profits.

News source: EX YU Aviation link: article

Video address

In a video address, Jorge Sampaio, the former president of Portugal and current High Representative for the Alliance of Civilizations, explained how, “the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations was created after nine eleven and the sequence of terrorist attacks in various parts of the world, at a dramatic time when violence, hatred, anger and fear looked as if they dominated people’s lives and international affairs. By then, the old divisions of the Cold War were replaced by new fault-lines and also by some imaginary divides. These new fault-lines stand for idealogical views, misconceptions, stereotypes and bigotry…[leading] to a rise in racial discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance, including in particular, discrimination against persons based on their religion or beliefs.”

Energizing dialogue and cooperation

Ms. Mirjana Kosic, the executive director of TransConflict Serbia, spoke in the high-level debate on “Energizing [intercultural] dialogue and cooperation in the region to shape a better future”.

After Dr. Helena Barroco, special adviser to the UN High Representative for the Alliance of Civilizations, delivered an overview of the Alliance of Civilizations’ action plan for the region, Mr. William Infante, the UN Resident Coordinator in Serbia, opened the discussion by emphasising the importance of partnership, embodied in the UN’s Country Partnership Strategy, as a means of ensuring that individuals and institutions act “more inclusively and less discriminatory.” One measure of progress concerns the level of connections between people – for instance, Facebook connections between Serbians and Albanians – as a proxy for measuring the changes induced by various media and advocacy campaigns.

Three important considerations

Ms. Katerina Stenou, director of the division of cultural policies and intercultural dialogue at UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization), outlined three important considerations pertaining to cultural diversity; namely, the importance of reflecting upon the good and the bad elements of one’s own culture; upholding conviviality by respecting other visions of the world; and demonstrating a willingness to change one’s culture – not because of external models or pressures, but because of an internal process of contemplation. “Only then can we speak of cultural diversity as a virtuous circle for dialogue”, Ms. Stenous asserts.

Ms. Kosic stressed that “one thing that we sometimes neglect is that most contemporary conflicts are identity-based – not solely ethnic or religious identities, but also based on gender or sexual orientation.” Reinforcing inter-cultural and inter-ethnic dialogue is therefore imperative to overcoming stereotyping, generalizations and misconceptions.

Intra-religious or intra-ethnic dialogue

Ms. Kosic also underlined that “intra-religious or intra-ethnic dialogue is just as important…with important implications for how that very group relates to other groups.” Ethnic or religious groups are not homogenous and should not be considered as such; “understanding this leads to a more comprehensive stratification of groups and individuals themselves”. Intra-community dialogue can therefore open up some interesting nuances and understandings that can facilitate and strengthen inter-community dialogue.

Ms. Kosic pointed out that inter-ethnic dialogue has tended to “remain at a rather symbolic level” and that in order to “go beyond mere tolerance…spheres of joint interaction are necessary”. Ms. Kosic added that, “inter-cultural dialogue as part of peacebuilding efforts must never be perceived as an end unto itself, but as consistently working towards securing a sustainable peace”. The continued commitment of NGOs to peacebuilding in Northern Ireland is testament to this. In addition, Ms. Kosic emphasized the importance of incorporating individuals or groups that are generally invisible or more difficult to work with, but vital to conflict transformation.

Sarajevo Declaration

The second south east Europe ministerial regional meeting will take place later in the year; a follow-up to inaugural regional ministerial conference in Sarajevo in 2009, which resulted in the adoption of the Sarajevo Declaration. The Autumn 2012 meeting will assess progress-to-date regarding the planned activities, and the preparation of concrete projects for the two year action plan on implementing the UNAOC Regional Strategy on Intercultural Dialogue and Cooperation in South Eastern Europe; focusing upon key areas such as education, media, youth and migration as a means of promoting inter-cultural dialogue, co-operation and reconciliation.

The action plan will be built upon six main thematic areas, including reconciling diversity and social cohesion; education as a tool for conflict prevention and peace-building; combatting stereotypes and misconceptions; developing inter-cultural dialogue skills and competencies; gender equality and empowerment of women; and cultural and development – tourism, arts and sport.

TransConflict will continue to support the United Nations Alliance of Civilization (UNAOC) to improve understanding and cooperation across cultures and religions; a prerequisite for countering polarization and extremism.

News source: Transconflict link: article

Visitors from Eurozone

This number grew by 2.2% on average between 2005 and 2011. Interestingly, the composition of those visitors changed in that time period. In 2005, 50% of the visitors came from the Eurozone; by 2011, that share had dropped to 40%. There was also a (more modest) decline in visitors from EU counties outside the Eurozone. These declines, however, were more than offset by a big increase (10% a year) in arrivals from other countries (chiefly, Russia, Israel, Turkey, and the Balkans).

Declining market share

This number shows that Greece does not have a problem attracting tourists – more people visited Greece in 2011 than in 2005. It also seems to contradict the idea that an appreciation in the Euro made Greece less attractive as a destination – in fact, tourism from Eurozone countries fell while tourism from other countries increased. More worryingly, Greece’s market share is declining. In 2005, Greece’s global market share was 1.8%, and that declined to 1.7% in 2011. Its market share in Southern Europe also declined from 9.4% in 2005 to 9% in 2011. So while Greece is receiving more tourists, it is not keeping up with the growth in global tourism or with its neighbors. And so the country is losing market share.

Lower revenues

This is a problem, but it is not the major problem. Overall, Greece earned as much from tourism in 2011 as it did in 2005 (modest decline). So while tourism made up 21% of exports in 2005, it made up just 18.6% in 2011 (continuing a steady decline from 25% in 2000). What is more, a euro in 2011 buys less than a euro in 2005: when controlling for inflation, Greece’s 2011 receipts were 20% lower than in 2005. Given that Greece is receiving more tourists, lower revenues are a result of value (how much tourists spend) rather than volume (how many come). Here again, there are two trends. First, tourists in 2011 spent 14% less time in Greece than in 2005. Second, tourists spend as much per night as they did in the past – but again, only on a nominal basis. On a real basis, spending per night fell by 18% relative to 2005.

Tourists buy less

The numbers suggest that Greece has been able to receive more tourists, although its market share is declining, both globally as well as regionally. The problem is an inability to keep tourists longer or to charge them more. In fact, Greece is unable to keep raising prices at the pace of overall inflation. Insofar as goods and services cost more, the result is that tourists buy less – on a nominal basis, they spend the same amount of money per night as they did in 2005. Therefore, the problem is one of “race-to-bottom” competition based chiefly on price. Tourists spend as much money per night as they did in 2005 – but on a real basis, that money yields much less in terms of goods and services for the tourists and for the Greeks receiving this money. Greece is unable to extract more from tourists either by offering them higher value services or by providing them with more things to do, which would make them spend more time in Greece.

Upgrade the offering of tourism in Greece

What these numbers underscore is a real need to upgrade the offering of tourism in Greece. The growth of tourists has been good but slower than the growth in the overall market. Strikes and fears of violence obviously do not help, but these do not seem to have held the number of arrivals down. Instead the problem is one of offering: the challenge is for Greece to provide more activities and options so that people stay longer while also attracting higher-value tourists that will spend more money on any given night. As long as Greece is merely offering the same thing at the same price (or cheaper due to inflation), the decline of Greek tourism will continue.

News source: Greek Default Watch link: article

• 1.) Transition region experienced net capital outflows in Q3 2011 for the first time since 2009. High frequency data suggests that outflows have continued at least through February 2012, even though at a decreasing pace.
• 2.) Parent bank de-leveraging appears to have started in the fall of 2011. Data on bank exposures from the BIS show that assets of international reporting banks in emerging Europe dropped sharply by USD 33 billion in Q3 2011, following a net increase by USD 47 billion in the first half of the year. More recent BoP data show that banks in central and south-eastern Europe continued to lose cross-border funds through Q4 2011.
• 3.) Credit growth has turned negative in almost all of the new EU members by late 2011 and early 2012. This is consistent with worsening credit conditions in Q3 and Q4 of 2011 in Emerging Europe as a whole.
• 4.) At the same time, banks may have avoided an even larger credit contraction due to constrained cross-border funding as they attracted additional deposits in the same period, with some significant exceptions (Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia –. Moreover, the balance of changes in cross-border funding and deposits does not fully explain changes in credit – these were likely driven by banks’ risk aversion in addition to availability of funding.
• 5.) Savings rates have risen from their levels seen before the global financial crisis in central and south-eastern Europe. This has likely contributed to the continued accumulation of new deposits in the region’s financial institutions, suggesting that they may continue to at least partially replace the ongoing decrease in cross-border funding.

Sovereign risk declined

ECB’s LTRO efforts may have helped the region as sovereign risk declined for a few transition countries a short while after the first round of support in late December and early January. This is due to lower risk aversion levels in the markets rather than a direct impact since the LTRO funds have not “trickled” into the region.1

News source: EBRD Blog link: article

Crude oil prices

Crude oil prices (World Bank average) rose by 4.5 percent in March to $117.8/bbl on expected supply losses from Iran, and ongoing disruptions in a number of non-OPEC counties—notably South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen—due to various geopolitical/weather/technical issues. The U.S./EU sanctions on Iran, which come into full force in July, have already caused EU countries, Japan and other nations to reduce imports from Iran. Further curtailments are likely as buyers encounter difficulty paying for Iranian crude (U.S. rules prohibit financial institutions that deal with the U.S. from doing business with Iranian banks). Up to 1 mb/d of Iranian exports may be halted by this summer according to the IEA. Further oil price increases may be capped, however, by the impact of high prices on demand, and as the U.S., UK and France consider the release of strategic reserves. The Brent/WTI spread remains at more than $20/bbl due to rising stocks at Cushing OK and limited capacity to transport surplus oil to the U.S. Gulf.

Agricultural prices

Agricultural prices rose by 0.9 percent in March, a third monthly gain. Increases in food prices—especially fats and oils—were partly offset by declines in beverages and raw materials. The largest gains were for soymeal and soybean prices, up 9 and 6 percent respectively, on lower than expected U.S. planting intentions, and reduced South American supplies due to dry weather. Palm oil and soybean oil prices rose 3-4 percent due to slower production in Malaysia and South America. Wheat and rice prices rose 2 percent, on tightening supplies.  Arabica coffee prices posted a 10 percent decline partly due to a large Brazilian crop. Coconut oil prices fell 5 percent on weak demand in Asia and substitution toward lower-priced competing oils. Logs (Malaysia) prices fell 3 percent on the slowdown in Asian demand.

Metals and minerals prices

Metals and minerals prices fell 0.2 percent in March with declines in most base metals, partially offset by a gain in iron ore prices. The largest decrease was for nickel, down 8 percent, on rising stocks and ongoing ramp-up of new projects that is expected to keep the market in surplus in the medium term. Tin prices fell 5 percent due to rising inventories and recovery in production from earlier weather-related disruptions in Asia. Lead prices fell 3 percent on seasonally weak battery demand and rising lead production in China. Also declining were gold and silver prices, down 4 percent, on reduced investment demand. The only notable price gain was for iron ore, up 3 percent, following the return of year-on-year growth to China’s steel production in February, and tightening seaborne ore supplies.

News source: World Bank Blog link: article

Returning investors

Investors have returned to emerging markets (EM) equity and fixed-income mutual funds in the first quarter of 2012, although the pace of inflows has decelerated recently. Emerging market bond funds received total inflows of $14.4 billion in inflows during the first quarter, while equity funds posted inflows of $25.6 billion. This follows a very weak second half of 2011 when investors redeemed positions equal to some $9.6 and $17.6 billion in the third and fourth quarters respectively. Despite recent declines, monthly inflows during March exceeded 7-year averages by 10.8 percent for equities and are almost 4 times higher for bonds.

Unemployment rates

Unemployment rates continue to rise in high-spread high-income European countries, while in developing and other high-income countries they are declining. So far this year the aggregate unemployment rate in high-spread high-income European countries has risen by 1.1 percentage points and now exceeds 15 percent. This contrasts with Germany where the unemployment rate continues to fall and is now well below pre-crisis levels. Elsewhere in Europe unemployment rates are also declining, but only gradually and unemployment remains well above pre-crisis levels. Unemployment is also declining among high-income countries outside Europe, notably in the United States, although there too the unemployment rate is still almost 3.5 percentage points above its pre-crisis average. Among the 27 developing countries reporting data, unemployment inched down to 7.2 percent of the labor force as of February 2012—regaining its pre-2008-crisis level, and significantly below its 20-year average of 8.8 percent.

Agricultural prizes

Global wheat and maize prices remain relatively low, despite lower than expected stocks. Maize and wheat prices are at broadly the same level as two weeks ago, despite sharp fluctuations in the run-up to and following recent U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports on planting intentions and grain stocks. The reports indicated that U.S. maize and wheat stocks on March 1st were 8 and 16 percent lower than a year ago, well below expectations and earlier estimates. As a result, futures prices jumped 6.6 and 7.9 percent on March 30th regaining the losses incurred earlier in the week in anticipation of a more upbeat outlook. The USDA also reported that US maize and wheat plantings are expected to rise 4 and 3 percent in 2012. As a result, if normal weather conditions prevail, grain markets will likely be well-supplied in 2012/13. However, most of the increased planting area will be at the expense of soybeans—which could put edible oil markets under upward price pressure,  given weather-related late plantings in South America, cyclical declines in East Asian palm oil output, and increased demand for biodiesel production.

News source: World Bank Blog link: article